GH – Paul Vs The Market

The Freedom Portfolio – July 2020

June 30, 2020 paul.essen Comments 4 comments

Wow.

2020 has been such a crummy year in so many ways, but when it comes to investing returns, I don’t know if I’ll ever see a quarter quite like the second quarter of this year.

This might be the best investing quarter that I will ever have.

The Freedom Portfolio was up 73% this past quarter alone. That is a ridiculous return for a whole year, let alone a single quarter. Granted, some of that is coming off of the Coronavirus-induced lows, but that’s just a tiny part of it. The Freedom Portfolio is still up 64% year-to-date and is now up 81% since inception, for a nearly 40% annual return. During that same time period, the S&P 500 is up only 10%, giving the Freedom Portfolio an outperformance of 71 percentage points.

For those who prefer visuals, here’s what it looks like:

Two years is still a pretty short period of time in the grand scheme of things, and I’m sure that gap will narrow at some point in the coming years, but at the same time I do believe evidence is starting to emerge that it is possible to beat the market… and that I’m doing it.

Here is the performance broken down by position over the past quarter:

Ticker	Percent Change
RDFN	169%
LVGO	163%
SE	144%
SHOP	128%
TTD	116%
TSLA	106%
SQ	100%
MELI	99%
JMIA	86%
YEXT	61%
JD	48%
FSLY	43%
SWAV	41%
AMZN	40%
BZUN	38%
ROKU	33%
AAXN	31%
TDOC	22%
NFLX	21%
SPOT	19%
DIS	15%
CRWD	1%
NVCR	-13%

Notable Performers

Best Performers

Not to brag (too much), but this list was nearly impossible to trim down. Two companies had stocks that appreciated over 150% this quarter alone. Another six appreciated 100% or more. Amazon (AMZN) had an incredible quarter that saw it gain 40% and yet it was (relatively speaking) a disappointment compared to the rest of the Freedom Portfolio and in fact dropped from a Babylon 5 level position to an Enterprise level position.

Anyway, to avoid going on for too long, I’m going to just stick to a top 3:

Livongo Health (LVGO): I first bought shares in this company last quarter and I am really glad I did. Livongo seems to be riding the telemedicine wave in the wake of Coronavirus, but I honestly thought this was an impressive company even before the pandemic. Their growth rates were incredible before and their model of health nudges and delivering medical supplies directly to the consumer should only benefit from a new normal that sees people visiting doctors and pharmacies less often. Few companies have gained my trust in terms of future performance more than Livongo over these past few months.

Sea Limited (SE): Although if any company could challenge Livongo’s claim to that title, it would be Sea. I’ve had my eyes opened to the potential of the Southeast Asia region and I was already a big fan of eCommerce and digital payment companies in developing regions (see, Mercado Libre (MELI)). Sea is following a slightly different path with their gaming business, and the competitive landscape is a little different with Alibaba looming, but I’m still really excited to see if Sea can become the dominant player in eCommerce and digital payments in Southeast Asia over the coming decade.

Redfin (RDFN): One of my favorite investments, and finally the performance is catching up to my conviction in the company. Early in 2020, Redfin looked to be on track for having a great year, before the stock got whacked hard by Coronavirus. I was confident that the short term challenges would be a long term gain for Redfin, though, as they had an advantage with virtual tours and low mortgage rates could heat up the housing market. It looks like I was right, and I’m thrilled to see people are finally realizing what a great investment Redfin can be.

Worst Performers

Again, not to brag too much, but it’s hard to find any contenders here. Only four positions under-performed the S&P, and two of those (Crowdstrike (CRWD) and Spotify (SPOT)) were only owned for a few weeks so it’s an unfair comparison. Thus, the only companies it makes sense to write about are…

Disney (DIS): It’s not at all a surprise that Disney hasn’t been the best performer this past quarter considering how almost all of their business lines have taken a major hit from Coronavirus induced lockdowns. Amusement Parks and Cruises are shut down. Movie theaters are shut down. Live sports are shut down. Short term, things will be messy for Disney, but assuming life ever gets back to some semblance of normality (which I believe it will), then I still like the long terms prospects. Disney+ is still killing it and they still have an amazing library of IP to pull from.

Novocure (NVCR): It makes some sense that Novocure is down a tiny bit this part quarter, as it sounds like Coronavirus is causing some delays in the clinical trials that were hoped to show how their Tumor Treating Fields could be effective with other types of cancers. I’m absolutely not worried at all, and even added to my position, as I see this as purely a short term speed bump and no challenge to the long term thesis.

Changes in the Portfolio

It was an unexpectedly active quarter for the Freedom Portfolio, as I closed out some lower conviction positions and added some new positions as well. Stock prices were also so volatile that there were some instances where I both added to my position AND trimmed some in the same quarter (Sea Limited).

Going forward, I’m hoping to try to write short pieces explaining my trades within a week of me making them, instead of saving them all up for the quarterly recaps. So if you don’t see this section in the next recap, that will be why.

Sells

KushCo (KSHB): It was long past time to sell. Too many things had happened to ruin the bull case and the company had gotten reduced to issuing more stock at depressed prices just to stay solvent. I don’t regret the initial investment because I thought it was worth the risk, but I do regret having held on for so long.

The Rubicon Project (RUBI): You might be asking yourself where this company came from since it wasn’t in the Freedom Portfolio last quarter. Teleria merged with the Rubicon Project and the combined entity took on the latter’s name. That’s not the reason I sold, though. The main catalyst was that the former CEO of Teleria, who had become the COO of the combined entity, ended up leaving the company soon after the merger was completed. That was enough of a red flag for me to exit for now, although I will keep an eye on the company to see how it executes going forward.

iQiyi (IQ): This one hurt for a few reasons. The first reason is that selling my entire iQiyi position effectively breaks up The JIB. The second reason is that just a few weeks after selling my shares, the stock popped big on news that Tencent (TCEHY) was planning on investing in the company, which makes it a lot more interesting. I have no plans to buy back into the company yet, but I will keep an eye on it.

Invitae (NVTA), Guardant Health (GH), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), and Editas Medicine (EDIT): I group all of these together because my reasons for selling them were pretty similar. I was looking to reduce the number of positions that I have, and all of these were lower conviction holdings because they score so low on the “Understanding” level of my P.A.U.L. scoring system. I personally find it difficult to grasp what kind of advantages and moats and optionality these companies possess, and so I felt it was better to re-deploy those funds to companies I had higher conviction in.

I can’t help but note that Invitae made sure to get a parting shot in at me, though. One month after I sold, they announced an acquisition which caused the stock to jump 60% in two days. That hurt, but I consoled myself by remembering that I used the proceeds to buy shares of Sea Limited, which had almost doubled in that same month.

Trimmed the following positions: Teladoc (TDOC), JD.com (JD), Shopify (SHOP), and Sea Limited (SE). I trimmed all of these positions because many of them had appreciated a ton and I wanted to free up some money for some new ideas. Selling shares of Shopify really hurt, though. Why? Because up until then, I hadn’t sold a single share from my original purchase at $44.55 a share despite watching it skyrocket and increase by 1,800% (that’s not a typo). Because of my past experience with Netflix, I had sworn I wouldn’t sell my winners too early again, and I am worried I might be doing that here. Still, Shopify was approaching 20% of my portfolio and I only sold a small percentage of my position (less than 10%), so I resigned myself to trimming a little bit.

Buys

Axon Enterprise (AAXN): I kept hearing good things about the moat that this company has from some investors I really respect on Twitter, so I started digging into it more. This company is basically the old “Taser” company, although the exciting part of their business now appears to be body cameras and the fees they charge police departments to store the video generated by those cameras. I spoke to a friend who is familiar with the product and they gave a fairly glowing review, so I decided to dip my toe in with a small position. We’ll see how it performs in the coming years, especially in the current “defund the police” environment.

Zoom Video Communications (ZM): It sounds bad, but I feel like I was basically begrudgingly pulled into this position. I struggle so much seeing what kind of moat this company can possible have when so many other huge tech giants also offer video conferencing (and have been for years), but I also know a lot of investors I really respect really believe in the company, so I decided to start a small position. It’s already up 70%(!) from where I bought it two months ago, so I guess I have been proven wrong so far.

Spotify (SPOT): I keep darting into and out of a position in Spotify because I really like the moves they are making in acquiring deals with major players in the podcast space, but I also struggle with how they are going to successfully monetize them. I decided to jump back in after hearing about the deal they made with Joe Rogan. I’m going to try really hard to just hang on for at least a year this time to see how this podcast experiment plays out.

Fastly (FSLY) and Crowdstrike (CRWD): Much like some of the companies above, I’ve been hearing a lot of good things about these companies from investors that I have a lot of respect for, so I decided to open some small positions while I do some further research. I’m looking forward to learning more so that my conviction can grow and I can become just as bullish on these companies as they are.

Additions to already existing positions: Disney (DIS), Livongo Health (LVGO), Novocure (NVCR), Redfin (RDFN), Sea Limited (SE), The Trade Desk (TTD), Yext (YEXT), Roku (ROKU).

The Freedom Portfolio – July 2020

Obviously a lot of this is influenced by the incredible performance this quarter, but I’m really excited where the Freedom Portfolio sits right now. A couple of positions (Shopify and Tesla) have seen huge run-ups and will likely see periods of under-performance over the coming quarters and maybe even years, but I really like a lot of the Serenity level holdings I have and am looking forward to them taking off and being the next big growers in my portfolio.

Ticker	Company Name	Allocation
SHOP	Shopify	Babylon 5
MELI	MercadoLibre	Babylon 5
AMZN	Amazon	Enterprise
TSLA	Tesla Motors	Enterprise
TDOC	Teladoc	Serenity
RDFN	Redfin	Serenity
NFLX	Netflix	Serenity
SE	Sea Limited	Serenity
LVGO	Livongo Health	Serenity
DIS	Walt Disney	Serenity
TTD	The Trade Desk	Serenity
SQ	Square	Serenity
NVCR	NovoCure	Serenity
JD	JD.com	Serenity
ROKU	Roku	Serenity
BZUN	Baozun	Serenity
YEXT	Yext	M. Falcon
ZM	Zoom Video	M. Falcon
AAXN	Axon Enterprises	M. Falcon
SWAV	ShockWave Medical	M. Falcon
FSLY	Fastly	M. Falcon
SPOT	Spotify	M. Falcon
CRWD	CrowdStrike	M. Falcon
JMIA	Jumia Technologies	M. Falcon

Thanks, as always, for reading. I hope you’ve been having as much fun following along with me as I’ve had doing this so far.

The Freedom Portfolio – April 2020

March 31, 2020 paul.essen Comments 2 comments

I don’t know how to start this quarterly update.

Just a month ago, I was watching the Freedom Portfolio have a scorching start to the new decade thanks to the incredible run of companies like Tesla (TSLA). I was even wondering if I might be able to talk about how the portfolio had managed to double over a mere 15 months. That kind of thinking seems patently ridiculous now.

For those unaware, this past month has seen the fastest market drop in history as COVID-19 (aka, Coronavirus) has brought the US economy to a screeching halt. The volatility has been extreme, and it has gotten to the point where I don’t even blink when multiple positions in the Freedom Portfolio are up (or down) 20%+ in a day. Redfin (RDFN) was recently up 20% and 30% in back-to-back days and is still down something close to 50% in the past month alone. So I’ve very quickly had to shift my mindset from one of, “Isn’t the market an amazing way to generate wealth?” to “Don’t panic! This kind of thing happens sometimes”.

After some consideration, I decided that I wanted to get one main point across with this quarterly update: That I am completely and utterly unfazed by what the stock market has done this quarter.

I laid out most of my thoughts in my previous article: Don’t Panic (and also: COVID-19 Update: What a month), but the short version is this: I was investing during the Great Financial Crisis. I know that markets often go down and the drop is often much faster than when it goes up. Volatility like this is the price paid for superior long term returns. I don’t know where the market will go over the coming months or even year, but I am very confident that over the next 5+ years (which is my investing time frame), that the market will be up from where it is now. Throughout this entire market drop, I only sold one position and immediately re-allocated those funds to another (new) position. I stayed invested in stocks the entire time and even increased my 401(k) contribution and shifted some of my emergency fund money from CDs to the market. I am not calling a bottom, but I am absolutely convinced that stocks are on sale right now for anybody who has a 5+ year time horizon like I do.

Before I get to the results for this past quarter, I want to make a very important note. The market has been extremely volatile lately, and it hasn’t been uncommon for the market to move more in a single day than it has in some previous months or years. I saw one stat that said, “In 2017 the S&P had daily moves of more than 1% 8 times. In the last 27 trading days it’s happened 21 times.”

All this is to say that the numbers contained below are very tentative and could easily be out of date by the time you read this. I typically like to write these quarterly updates a week or two in advance, and most of these numbers will be coming from March 26th/27th, but who knows how things might change by the time April 1st comes along. If things change too much, I suppose I can always write this article off as an April Fool’s Day joke.

So basically, treat the numbers below as very tentative.

With that being said, it looks like the Freedom Portfolio will end up down around 6% for the first quarter of 2020. That’s not good, but still far better than the S&P 500, which is down roughly 21%. Since inception, the Freedom Portfolio is now convincingly beating the S&P with a positive return of 4% versus a negative return of 11% for the S&P. That’s an outperformance of 15 percentage points over a year and a half.

In terms of beating the market, that’s a pretty great quarter for the Freedom Portfolio. Obviously, it’s a bit of a mixed bag because my portfolio has lost tens of thousands of dollars over a mere 30 days, which is almost certainly the biggest loss of wealth I’ve ever experienced in my life in that short of an amount of time, but I am pleased that my portfolio has held up better than the market overall during these trying times and has opened up a convincing lead. Here’s hoping the Freedom Portfolio can expand that lead as the market rebounds.

Here is the performance broken down by position over the past quarter:

Ticker	Percent Change
TDOC	80.7%
TSLA	24.0%
JD	17.3%
SE	13.2%
SHOP	13.1%
NFLX	9.9%
AMZN	4.2%
MDB	0.5%
NVTA	0.0%
IQ	-7.0%
LVGO	-7.0%
SQ	-11.4%
GH	-11.4%
BZUN	-12.1%
RDFN	-14.7%
MELI	-16.6%
NVCR	-20.2%
TTD	-20.9%
SWAV	-23.0%
YEXT	-23.2%
DIS	-27.6%
CRSP	-28.4%
TLRA	-29.2%
EDIT	-30.0%
ROKU	-32.2%
KSHB	-34.2%
JMIA	-51.6%

Notable Performers

Best Performers

Teladoc (TDOC): It should be no secret why Teladoc had an amazing quarter. I don’t want to make light of a situation which is killing people and obviously Teladoc management would never want to phrase it this way, but you couldn’t have written up a better script for Teladoc than a highly contagious pandemic where the government is encouraging people to practice social distancing. I had invested in Teladoc because I thought telemedicine would be big in the future and COVID-19 seems to have only accelerated that future to now.

Tesla (TSLA): Tesla shows up as a big winner, but it almost feels like a loser to me. Why? Because just around a month and a half ago, Tesla was above $900 a share and absolutely crushing it with early Model Y deliveries and promises of shoring up their balance sheet with secondary offerings and actual profit. Now, the stock is barely above $500 a share and factories are (begrudgingly) being shut down. It has still been an amazing run for the company over the past six months, though, and the future still looks bright.

JD.com (JD): It’s probably a surprise to most people, but China’s stock market has been one of the best performing (if not the best performing) market in the world in 2020. JD.com was basically born during the SARS epidemic when its founder decided to take advantage of the opportunity to sell things online and it sounds like it has been able to come through this COVID-19 crisis stronger as well.

Worst Performers

Jumia Technologies (JMIA): Another quarter, another appearance on the “worst performers” list. I’ve run out of things to say about Jumia. It has flat out been an awful investment so far. I’m probably holding on for now, especially since it has shrunk to such a small position, but I’m definitely not looking to add any more shares.

Kushco Holdings (KSHB): Everything from above can be said for Kushco as well. There’s a possibility of a rebound if/when vaping bounces back and/or marijuana becomes legalized at the federal level in the United States, but those hopes aren’t big enough to buy more shares. Like with Jumia, I am tempted to close out this position.

Roku (ROKU): I’m not sure I understand why Roku has sold off as much as it has this quarter. My best guess is that it has less to do with the company itself and more to do with the sector it is in: connected TV and advertising focused companies. Not only was Roku down big this quarter, but so were companies like The Trade Desk (TTD) and Teleria (TLRA). Perhaps the market is concerned that there will be less money spent on advertising during a recession? Regardless, I’m unconcerned about this drop so far.

Disney (DIS): While it’s a mystery to me why Roku is down big, it’s no mystery at all why Disney has been crushed in the wake of COVID-19. Their amusement parks have been shut down to help prevent the spread of the disease and movie theaters have also been shut down, meaning they can’t release movies like Mulan and Black Widow. Even their TV properties are likely struggling with ESPN having so little professional sports to cover. Maybe they’re seeing a slight bump in Disney+ adoption due to social distancing, but it’s not nearly enough to offset the damage being done elsewhere. No wonder Bob Iger jumped ship early. Disney is going to have some tough earnings reports coming up (especially compared to the incredible year they had last year), and the timing is rough since they just spent a ton of money acquiring Fox and ownership of Hulu, but I still believe in Disney over the long term. I’m holding tight.

Changes in the Portfolio

It’s worth noting that the majority of the moves below were made before the market tanked. Since February 21st, the only moves I have made are the MondoDB sell and the Livongo Health buy. All of the other changes were made earlier in the year and were mostly focused on trying to concentrate my portfolio down into fewer positions (something I alluded to wanting to do in my previous quarterly recap).

Sells

Abiomed (ABMD): I was beginning to lose hope in the promised turnaround and was beginning to wonder if the damage had already been done and would ever fully get reversed. Once the seed of doubt is planted that a medical device might be unsafe, how many studies is it going to take to remove that doubt? Does Abiomed have a second act to rely on? I had lost my conviction in the company, and decided that meant it was time to sell.

StoneCo (STNE): I had bought StoneCo because I loved the idea of buying the “Square of Latin America” and also liked seeing that Berkshire Hathaway had a position in the company. However, I kept struggling with the fact that I hardly knew anything about the company outside of earnings reports. Also, one of the main reasons I love Square is their Cash App, which is something that StoneCo doesn’t seem to have (but possible competitor and other Freedom Portfolio holding Mercado Libre (MELI) does have). This was a lower conviction holding, and I felt like the money was better invested in another company I had a higher conviction in.

MongoDB (MDB): There’s a saying that I like that says, “you can’t borrow conviction”. MongoDB was increasingly feeling like a stock where I was trying to borrow conviction from others. A lot of smart investors I know are high on MongoDB, which is why I had dipped my toe in with a small position. However, I always struggled to understand what gave it an advantage over similar offerings from Amazon (AMZN). It has eternally languished as one of my lower conviction positions and this year I finally decided to close it out to put the funds to better use in higher conviction picks.

Alibaba (BABA): One of my initial reasons for investing in Alibaba was because I liked a lot of the opportunities they seemed to have expanding their eCommerce operations outside of China (specifically Southeast Asia). With my recent purchase of Sea Limited (SE), that itch has been scratched, and there was one less reason to invest in Alibaba. I liked the Chinese exposure that I was getting from the JIB stocks, so it felt like the time to put those funds to better use somewhere else.

Buys

Livongo Health (LVGO): This is a buy from last quarter’s watchlist. I was really interested in their business model, which uses AI to provide “nudges” to people dealing with chronic diseases like diabetes and high blood pressure. It’s a subscription model that appears to be growing nicely and has some good data to back up how it helps improve health outcomes and also save money. They also have held up surprisingly well over the past month for some reason, which is a nice bonus.

Additions to already existing positions: Roku (ROKU), Teleria (TLRA), Yext (YEXT).

Watchlist

I’ve been pretty inactive in terms of buying and/or selling positions in the Freedom Portfolio during this COVID-19 induced market drop because I don’t like to make rash decisions. However, seeing a lot of my positions losing 30%, 40%, or even 50% of their value has really illuminated which companies I really believe in (and want to buy more of) and which have me worried (and make me want to sell). There’s a decent chance I purge some of those companies in the coming quarter in order to load up on some of those companies that I believe i more. In addition to possibly adding to positions I already have, here is what is on my watchlist to buy or sell in the coming quarter:

Luckin Coffee (LK) – China has a lot of people, and they’re not nearly as obsessed with coffee as Americans are… yet. I’m intrigued by this China-based, mobile app / kiosk focused coffee company. The stock is down about 50% from its recent highs, and I’m tempted to dip my toe in now. If it drops more (presumably after some pretty bad earnings reports due to China’s lockdown) then I’ll be even more tempted.

Spotify (SPOT) – Spotify used to be in the Freedom Portfolio, but I sold because I lost conviction in it. I never stopped being intrigued by the company, though, and continue to be impressed by the moves they are making to become the Netflix of audio. Purchasing The Ringer (and their stable of popular podcasts) could be huge and could give them something that differentiates them from things like Amazon Music and Apple Music. I’ll be watching with interest to see what their next moves are.

KushCo and Jumia – See above. These two companies have been awful performers over many quarters, and I’m not sure I can see daylight at the end of the tunnel anymore. I have no plans to sell right now, but the thought has crossed my mind a few times.

Crispr (CRSP) and Editas (EDIT) – It’s really hard for me to have that strong of conviction when it comes to areas I know so little about. Everybody tells me that CRISPR is going to be huge, and I believe them, but I don’t have a strong sense of how to judge which companies are best positioned to take advantage or even how to measure how progress is going. Since I am trying to concentrate my portfolio on my higher conviction picks, then, these two have to be under consideration for being on the chopping block.

Guardant Health (GH) – Similar to the above, I’m far from a healthcare expert, and so it’s hard for me to judge just how good of a moat Guardant Health has and how susceptible they are to disruption. Another company I might consider selling to raise funds to buy something else.

The Freedom Portfolio – April 2020

Due to the incredible volatility in the market the past month or so, the Freedom Portfolio has seen more change than usual. Former Babylon 5 sized position Mercado Libre has shrunk back to an Enterprise level position. Former Serenity sized positions Teladoc, Tesla, and Netflix have surged into Enterprise level positions, and there has been a lot of switching up between Serenity and Millenium Falcon sized positions as well. Will things return to normal once everything related to COVID-19 settles down? Or will Tesla and Teladoc be permanent fixtures among the Enterprise and above levels? I guess we’ll find out.

Ticker	Company Name	Allocation
SHOP	Shopify	Babylon 5
AMZN	Amazon	Babylon 5
MELI	MercadoLibre	Enterprise
TDOC	Teladoc	Enterprise
TSLA	Tesla Motors	Enterprise
NFLX	Netflix	Enterprise
SQ	Square	Serenity
DIS	Walt Disney	Serenity
NVCR	NovoCure	Serenity
JD	JD.com	Serenity
RDFN	Redfin	Serenity
BABA	Alibaba	Serenity
IQ	iQiyi	Serenity
CRSP	CRISPR Therapeutics	Serenity
BZUN	Baozun	Serenity
TTD	The Trade Desk	Serenity
ROKU	Roku	Serenity
TLRA	Telaria	Serenity
YEXT	Yext	M. Falcon
NVTA	Invitae	M. Falcon
SE	Sea Limited	M. Falcon
EDIT	Editas Medicine	M. Falcon
SWAV	ShockWave Medical	M. Falcon
GH	Guardant Health	M. Falcon
JMIA	Jumia Technologies	M. Falcon
KSHB	KushCo	M. Falcon

Thanks, as always, for reading. I hope you all manage to stay safe during these extraordinary times. And remember: Wash your hands.

The Freedom Portfolio – January 2020

January 15, 2020 paul.essen Comments 6 comments

2019 is in the books! It’s time for another quarterly Freedom Portfolio update. Sorry this update is a little late. Over the past few weeks I’ve been juggling the typical holiday hecticness, setting up the next season of Fantasy Investing (new post coming soon!), trying to stick to a New Year’s Resolution to workout more, and dealing with 3 separate cases of flu in the family.

The fourth quarter was a pretty great one for the Freedom Portfolio, which was up a strong 16% versus roughly 9% for the S&P 500. Since inception, the Freedom Portfolio is now up 11.2% versus 10.4% for the S&P 500. It’s not a huge amount of out-performance, but it’s still a relatively short time frame when it comes to my investing horizon.

Here is the performance broken down by position over the past quarter:

Ticker	Percent Change
TSLA	71.0%
CRSP	58.1%
SWAV	46.4%
TTD	41.5%
EDIT	34.3%
IQ	32.6%
RDFN	32.0%
GH	31.3%
ROKU	30.8%
TLRA	29.6%
SE	28.5%
BABA	28.4%
SHOP	26.9%
TDOC	25.3%
JD	25.0%
NFLX	20.0%
STNE	16.8%
NVCR	14.5%
DIS	11.6%
MDB	9.2%
AMZN	6.5%
MELI	3.9%
SQ	1.5%
ABMD	0.2%
KSHB	-4.1%
YEXT	-6.8%
JMIA	-8.9%
NVTA	-11.5%
BZUN	-22.5%

Notable Performers

Best Performers

Tesla (TSLA): Even for a volatile stock like Tesla, the fourth quarter was a little crazy. Positive news regarding Model 3 deliveries in the US and deliveries in China ramping up earlier than expected seemed to be enough to send shorts scurrying for the exit. Even the widely panned (at the time) Cybertruck demonstration didn’t seem to hurt the stock momentum much (possibly because of the higher than expected number of reservations that Elon Musk announced?). There are still plenty of risks with Tesla, but much like the end of the year last year, they seem to be going into the new year with the good news outweighing the bad… for now.

CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP): The fourth quarter of 2019 saw some promising news in terms of the types of benefits people were hoping to see from CRISPR (the technology, not the company). That appears to be the biggest reason why CRISPR (the company, not the technology) and Editas (EDIT) both saw big bumps over the past few months. In the case of CRISPR, it was enough of a bump to push it from a Millenium Falcon position to a Serenity level position.

ShockWave Medical (SWAV): It’s a little unclear to me exactly what happened with ShockWave Medical over the past quarter, since there didn’t appear to be any significant news which should’ve moved the stock. My best guess is that, because the IPO lockup period ended on September 3rd, it’s possible a lot of insiders sold their shares (which depressed the price of the stock) and once the selling was over (coincidentally right around the start of the quarter), the stock rebounded some.

ShockWave is actually an interesting case study regarding the dangers of investing in recently IPO’d companies. I typically try to wait before investing in recent IPOs, but broke my rule twice in 2019 (Jumia and ShockWave) and got burned both times. It’s easy to get caught up in the euphoria surrounding an IPO and then get caught owning a stock that plummets once that euphoria wears off. The same pattern happened a lot with IPOs in 2019 where the stock went crazy in the first few months before crashing back down to Earth. Just look at Beyond Meat (BYND)!

The lesson learned for me? Don’t get caught up in the excitement around an IPO, and especially don’t get caught up in feelings of FOMO when an interesting stock keeps going up to ridiculous heights. Chances are good there will be a better entry price once the lockup period ends and the excitement wears off. I’m still bullish on ShockWave, but I do wish I had waited longer to start my position.

The Trade Desk (TTD): Another head-scratcher. While The Trade Desk was up 40%+ the past quarter, if you zoom out a little more you would see that appreciation just about brings it back to where it was in the middle of 2019. A number of high-growth, high-valuation software as a service (SaaS) companies saw some dips in the third quarter of 2019, so this rebound seems like it’s just a recovery from that previous dip.

Worst Performers

Baozun (BZUN): Baozun’s most recent earnings report was pretty good, and contained some strong growth across the board, but it also contained forward guidance which seemed to disappoint investors. I knew that Baozun was likely to be a volatile stock, and the past few years has likely been tough in terms of a slowing Chinese economy and the trade war, so I’m not overly concerned. Still, I’ll be interested to see what their next earnings report looks like. If it looks like there are signs of permanently slowing growth, then it might be time to consider selling.

Invitae (NVTA): Invitae is another stock that I expected volatility from. As of mid-2019 it had almost doubled, so I’m not surprised to see it give some of those gains back later in the year. No huge concerns for me here.

Jumia Technologies (JMIA): Jumia falls squarely into the “recent IPO that I should’ve waited longer to invest in” camp that I mentioned above. I’m still a believer in the eCommerce opportunity in Africa, but in retrospect Jumia was clearly way overvalued and is now sitting considerably below its IPO price. I should’ve waited to see how the company performed for a few quarters instead of jumping in so soon. I excepted a ton of volatility from Jumia (even more than from the companies above), so the drop in stock price doesn’t concern me, although I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on how the company continues to perform. They’re burning through a lot of cash and profitability seems very far away. This remains possibly the riskiest position in the Freedom Portfolio.

Changes in the Portfolio

There was a saying I came across recently which essentially said that every new addition to your portfolio should be better than what you already own, or else you are diluting your returns. It was something that really spoke to me. I always envisioned the ideal number of positions for the Freedom Portfolio being somewhere between 20 and 25, even though I knew that would be hard to stick to. Sure enough, the Freedom Portfolio had ballooned to over 30 positions as of the last check-in. As a result, for the past few months I’ve tried to focus on reducing the number of positions I have by eliminating those I have lower conviction in. You’ll probably see that reflected below.

Sells

Twilio (TWLO): One concern that I have had over the past few months is the performance of software as a service (SaaS) stocks possibly getting ahead of the underlying businesses. I sold my entire position in Twilio because it was one of my lower conviction SaaS companies where I felt like I didn’t fully understand their competitive advantage enough.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG): Another lower conviction positions that I sold completely out of. I’m still really interested in the robotic assisted surgery space, but there are other opportunities I’m more excited about right now.

Illumina (ILMN): It’s a similar story with Illumina. They’ve run into some slower growth and some speed bumps with their Pacific Bio acquisition. There are enough dark clouds around the company right now that I just didn’t want to have to deal with.

Prosus (PROSY) and Naspers (NPSNY): Prosus was a spin-off of Naspers that happened earlier in the year. Both were intended to be indirect ways to invest in Tencent while getting some exposure to other companies as well. It’s hard to think of a better way to simplify my portfolio than to drop Prosus and Naspers. It helps that I have become concerned about the Chinese government’s increasing scrutiny of Tencent’s gaming business.

Buys

Roku (ROKU): Most people probably only think of the small hardware devices when they think of Roku, but they also have a growing advertising business. With the streaming video wars seemingly heating up with the release of Disney + and Apple TV +, I’ve become more interested in different ways to invest in the connected TV space and Roku seems like a good one.

Telaria (TLRA): Like Roku, Telaria is another way to invest in advertising in the connected TV future. It’s a small company, so I’m starting with a small position right now while I see how the company performs and learn more about the business.

Yext (YEXT): Although it’s a new position, Yext has been on my radar for a few years now. I used to work with some people who now work at Yext, so I was familiar with the company even before they went public. Some investors that I really respect are pretty bullish on Yext, and that has played a big role in why I have opened a small position.

Additions to already existing positions: Sea Limited (SE), NovoCure (NVCR), Abiomed (ABMD), Guardant Health (GH), Baozun (BZUN), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP).

Watchlist

One thing I want to improve on in 2020 is being less impulsive in terms of starting new positions and selling current ones. One idea I have of enforcing that is to have a watchlist of stocks every quarter that I am considering buying or selling. Ideally I wouldn’t buy or sell any stock unless it was on my watchlist from the previous quarterly update. I don’t want to make it a hard and fast rule quite yet, but wanted to give it a try to see how it works. Here is my first watchlist:

Livongo Health (LVGO) – Interesting looking healthcare company which uses AI to provide “nudges” to people dealing with chronic diseases. Has a relatively unique subscription model as well.

MondoDB (MDB) – One of my lower conviction holdings (and I’m trying to concentrate my portfolio more). I’m still concerned by their ability to grow in a world with big players like AWS (Amazon Web Services). A contender for selling to deploy capital elsewhere.

Alibaba (BABA) – Another lower conviction holding. It’s already a big player in China. How much larger can they get? How do they perform with a possibly slowing Chinese economy?

Roku (ROKU) – I know I just started this position, but I hadn’t added it to the Freedom Portfolio until now because I had concerns about its ability to differentiate itself in the connected TV future. I’m not sure they have a defensible moat and am willing to sell if it looks like they’re losing ground to competitors or the landscape is changing.

Abiomed (ABMD) – Again, this was a position I just added to, but I think there are a lot of questions swirling around Abiomed that will get answered in the next quarter or two. Can they turn things around and get growth back on track? I think so, but if I end up being wrong then I want to be able to get out quickly.

The Freedom Portfolio – January 2020

So where does the Freedom Portfolio stand going into 2020? Well, thanks to the incredible performance of Shopify and Mercado Libre, it’s interestingly top-heavy with 3 Babylon 5 level positions yet no Enterprise level positions. I don’t expect this to last for too long, however, as Disney and Netflix are right on the cusp and both feel primed to have a strong 2020. Need a reminder of what these terms mean? Check out: Defining my Terms.

Ticker	Company Name	Allocation
SHOP	Shopify	Babylon 5
AMZN	Amazon	Babylon 5
MELI	MercadoLibre	Babylon 5
DIS	Walt Disney	Serenity
NFLX	Netflix	Serenity
SQ	Square	Serenity
NVCR	NovoCure	Serenity
TSLA	Tesla Motors	Serenity
JD	JD.com	Serenity
RDFN	Redfin	Serenity
TDOC	Teladoc	Serenity
BABA	Alibaba	Serenity
IQ	iQiyi	Serenity
CRSP	CRISPR Therapeutics	Serenity
BZUN	Baozun	Serenity
TTD	The Trade Desk	Serenity
EDIT	Editas Medicine	M. Falcon
NVTA	Invitae	M. Falcon
ROKU	Roku	M. Falcon
ABMD	Abiomed	M. Falcon
STNE	Stoneco	M. Falcon
SWAV	ShockWave Medical	M. Falcon
SE	Sea Limited	M. Falcon
MDB	Mongo DB	M. Falcon
GH	Guardant Health	M. Falcon
TLRA	Telaria	M. Falcon
YEXT	Yext	M. Falcon
JMIA	Jumia Technologies	M. Falcon
KSHB	KushCo	M. Falcon

Thanks, as always, for reading, and here’s to a prosperous new decade for all investors.

The Freedom Portfolio – October 2019

October 11, 2019 paul.essen Comments 4 comments

It’s the one year anniversary of Paul vs the Market and the Freedom Portfolio! I just wish it could’ve coincided with a better performing quarter. The third quarter of 2019 was brutal, and saw the Freedom Portfolio essentially give back all of the gains from the 2nd quarter. The Freedom Portfolio was down 10.5% for the quarter, compared to the S&P being up around 1.7%. I’m still up versus the market year-to-date 22.9% to 20.5%, but am now back to losing to the market since inception (October of 2018) -4.1% to 3.9%.

Which brings me to something different that I want to do for this update: Instead of talking about the past quarter, I want to take a slightly longer term view and look at the performance since inception, which in this case is one year ago.

Below is table of the performance of the current positions in the Freedom Portfolio for the past year. For positions that I owned prior to October 2018, the starting price is the price on October 1st, 2018. For the positions that I acquired afterwards, the starting price is the price from the earliest date of purchase (since in some cases I bought shares multiple times). Here are the results:

Ticker	Start Price	Current Price	Percent Change
ABMD	191.68	177.89	-7.2%
AMZN	2021.99	1735.91	-14.1%
BABA	192.37	167.23	-13.1%
BZUN	49.3	42.7	-13.4%
CRSP	38.89	40.99	5.4%
DIS	117.28	130.32	11.1%
EDIT	23.43	22.74	-2.9%
GH	93.87	63.83	-32.0%
ILMN	369.15	304.22	-17.6%
IQ	27	16.13	-40%
ISRG	575.17	539.93	-6.1%
JD	26.03	28.21	8.4%
JMIA	18.91	7.93	-58.1%
KSHB	5.97	1.48	-75.2%
MDB	155.01	120.48	-22.3%
MELI	343.84	551.23	60.3%
NFLX	375.85	267.62	-28.8%
NPSNY	40.16	29.96	-25.4%
NVCR	52.94	74.78	41.3%
NVTA	17.6	19.27	9.5%
RDFN	18.56	16.84	-9.3%
SE	32.51	30.95	-4.8%
SHOP	166.44	311.66	87.3%
SQ	100.8	61.95	-38.5%
STNE	41.69	34.78	-16.6%
SWAV	53.12	29.93	-43.7%
TDOC	86.78	67.72	-22.0%
TSLA	305.77	240.87	-21.2%
TTD	214.75	187.55	-12.7%
TWLO	140.44	109.96	-21.7%

First, I want to point out an omission that I had trouble accounting for in the table above. Naspers (NPSNY) had an interesting (and complicated) quarter where they effectively spun off part of their business into another company called “Prosus” (PROSY) which is listing on the Amsterdam stock exchange (versus the Johannesburg stock exchange that Naspers is listed on). I won’t go into the details, but for each share of Naspers that I owned I now also own a share of Prosus as a result of the spin-off. However, when the split happened, the price of Naspers shares dropped a great deal (as one would expect). Therefore, the performance of Naspers above isn’t nearly as bad as it may seem.

Secondly, when looking at the performance of my positions over the past year, some of the numbers surprised me. There are typically three ways I look at the performance of my stocks: Daily (checking in on performance during my lunch break), Quarterly (during Freedom Portfolio check-ins), and Lifetime (since I bought the stock and not just from the beginning of the Freedom Portfolio).

So while I obviously know Netflix (NFLX) has had a rough past 6 months or so, it was still jarring to see the nearly 30% decline since the inception of the Freedom Portfolio. Why? Because I originally bought my shares of Netflix many years ago and so I’m used to thinking of it as a 400%+ out-performer and not an under-performer like it has been recently.

Netflix was probably the biggest discrepancy, but the story was similar across the board: Amazon (AMZN) was down 14% instead of being 300% up like I am used to seeing. Illumina (ILMN) down 17% instead of up 100%. There was even a big difference in the winners over the past year as well: Shopify (SHOP) was “only” up 87% instead of 600%+. It really drove home to me the important of a long term mindset that goes well beyond a single year. If I were to judge Netflix or Amazon on the performance over a single year, I probably would’ve sold it well before it had time to double, triple, and quadruple.

The first year I started closely following my investment returns, I just barely beat the S&P, but in the two years after I more than doubled the S&P 500’s return. I have consistently said, “I fully expect that there will be years where I lose to the market, sometimes badly.” While I didn’t lose to the market badly this first year, I did lose to it. Obviously I would’ve rather had a different outcome, but I am absolutely not deterred. I like the companies in the Freedom Portfolio right now even though many have seen pretty severe drops recently. I’m confidently that many of them will outperform over the next 5+ years and that some of them will outperform by a lot. I have a long term time horizon and that hasn’t changed at all with one disappointing year.

Now that that is out of the way, let’s get into some notable performers over the past year.

Notable Performers

Best Performers

Shopify (SHOP): It’s not a surprise to see Shopify as the top performer over the past year, as they’ve had quite an amazing run which saw the stock nearly triple in 2019 before giving back some of the gains in recent months. An 87% gain in a single year sounds impressive, but what’s even more impressive is that it’s up 600%+ since I bought it in 2017. The best might still be yet to come, too, with third party vendors looking for alternatives to Amazon and the building out of their fulfillment network. Looking forward to this being a major part of my portfolio for many years to come.

MercadoLibre (MELI): Also not surprising to see Mercado Libre up here, as it has also had an incredible run in 2019. The unrest in Argentina has hit the stock some recently, and the geo-political risk is as present as ever, but Mercado Libre still keeps finding a way to grow despite all the headwinds. I love being able to get an eCommerce play and digital payments play in the same company, and I also love getting exposure to the developing markets of South America. Can’t wait to see this company really soar once the situations in places like Argentina and Venezuela stabilize.

NovoCure (NVCR): This one might be a little bit of a surprise, since I don’t recall writing too much about Novocure in the past. The science fiction fan in me was initially attracted to the idea of fighting cancerous tumors with forcefields (or at least that’s how I prefer to think of them), but the investor in me loves how they continue to execute in getting their devices approved for more and more conditions.

Disney (DIS): A 10% gain might not seem that impressive, especially considering the ridiculous record breaking box office that Disney has had and all the hype around Disney+, but it was enough to make it a top 4 performer. Disney has weathered the market volatility better than most of my positions, and I’m excited to see what the next 12 months brings. Next year’s box office will almost certainly be considerably lower than this year’s, which could weigh on the stock, but we’ll also see the launch of Disney+ in November and start getting some subscriber numbers. I expect Disney is going to crush it with their numbers and beat even the optimistic expectations. We’ll find out in a few months.

Worst Performers

KushCo Holdings (KSHB): Thank goodness KushCo started off as one of my smaller holdings. The stock has gotten crushed recently, losing half its value in just a few months. The main culprit seems to be the sudden backlash to vaping, but I also have some slight concerns about solvency based on some of the recent actions the company has taken. I’m still holding on for now, as the long term thesis could still be intact assuming we don’t see a full on ban on vaping and the movement towards marijuana legalization continues, but the risks have definitely increased with this one.

Jumia Technologies (JMIA): Jumia is the poster child for not getting caught up in a recent IPO and waiting a few months before jumping in. Luckily, I didn’t buy anywhere near the high of around $40 a share because I realized it was an absurd valuation for such an unproven company. Still, I’m down on all of my purchases so I should’ve been even more cautious. Also, maybe I should give more thought to when lock-up periods end. Still, I am a sucker for eCommerce and developing markets, so I’m still holding onto my shares and looking for better days (and years) ahead.

ShockWave Medical (SWAV): Another cautionary tale of buying a recent IPO too soon. This time I unfortunately bought much closer to the high. I suspect I saw a lot of similarities to NovoCure (one of my top performers above) and got too carried away. Both are medical device companies with really innovative solutions to widespread problems. I still like the future prospects of the company and plan on holding, I just wish I had been more patient so I could’ve bought shares cheaper.

iQiyi (IQ): I suppose iQiyi could also be considered a relatively recent IPO (early 2018) that in retrospect I should’ve waited longer to buy. It’s hard to disentangle how much of iQiyi’s performance lately is due to the performance of the company or larger concerns over China. I haven’t seen anything in the company’s performance which overly concerns me yet, although the competition remains a concern.

Square (SQ): This one is a head scratcher to me. I’m having a hard time understanding why Square has floundered so much recently, especially in comparison to Shopify, which has soared. Square seems to be in a great position, with their Cash app, to appeal to the un-banked and under-banked and be a major player in the digital payments space. Hard to see how this is anything more than just a temporary setback.

Changes in the Portfolio

Sells

Uxin (UXIN): The short story is that I found other investments that I preferred having my money in. I still think Uxin is an interesting story and will keep tabs on it and may return at some point in the future, but there were more interesting companies that I wanted to be invested in. As a result, I sold my entire position.

Markel (MKL): Similar to Uxin, I saw better opportunities elsewhere. I do think Markel will be a market beater long term, but there are other companies that I think will beat the market by an even larger margin, and I wanted to invest in those instead. I sold my entire position.

Netflix (NFLX): This one hurt. Netflix has been one of my longest term holdings and is a company that I have a long and storied history with. At points I even swore that I would never sell any shares ever again. I only sold a part of my position, and it still remains a sizeable holding for me. I still believe it will be a long term winner, and I also think the recently correction is overdone, but I do worry that lower cost competition from Disney and Apple will hurt Netflix’s ability to raise prices, which will hamper their growth prospects some.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG): I sold about a third of my position largely because I wanted some cash to purchase something else and this was one of my lower conviction ideas at the time.

Illumina (ILMN): Similar to Intuitive Surgical above, I also only sold about a third of my Illumina position. I had a more specific reason for Illumina, though. Their most recent earnings report had some warning flags in terms of slowing growth that had me worried.

Buys

Alibaba (BABA): Nothing fancy. Alibaba has been pretty flat for the past year despite posting some pretty nice earnings reports during that time and continuing to grow at an impressive rate. Once sentiment on China turns away from being so negative, this feels like a stock that could really rebound nicely.

Jumia Technologies (JMIA): It wasn’t surprising to see Jumia fall so much after the crazy run-up in the immediate aftermath of their IPO. Even though my initial position is down almost 50%, I’m still intrigued by the potential of the so-called “Amazon of Africa”, and so decided to add a little to my position. It remains one of my smallest positions, though.

The Trade Desk (TTD): The Trade Desk continues to grow like gangbusters, even if the stock has been relatively flat recently. I still like the long term story, though, so I added to my position.

Square (SQ): Square had a rough quarter which saw the stock price plummet after what looked like a pretty good earnings report. I’m not sure I understand what the market is thinking here, and still like a lot of the things they’re working on like the rumored stock trading functionality to the Cash app and acquiring a banking license. I added a bit to my position.

Shockwave Medical (SWAV): Similar to Jumia, Shockwave has also had a big pullback after a huge run-up post-IPO. I see nothing which changes my original investment thesis, and I suspect this is just a little post-IPO enthusiasm wearing off, so I lowered my cost basis some.

Abiomed (ABMD), MongoDB (MDB), Twilio (TWLO), Guardant Health (GH), Sea Limited (SE): All new positions, and all small ones at that. They range from more medical companies (ABMD and GH) to Software as a Service (SaaS) companies (MDB and TWLO) to another eCommerce play (SE). I might write more about some of these later depending on how things go, but for now they’re too small to spend too much time discussing.

Other

Naspers (NPSNY) and Prosus (PROSY): As mentioned previously, I acquired shares of Prosus as a result of a spin-off by Naspers. I plan on holding both for now, although at some point I might end up simplifying things by selling one or the other.

The Freedom Portfolio – October 2019

So where does the Freedom Portfolio stand at one year old? Take a look below. Need a reminder of what these terms mean? Check out: Defining my Terms.

Ticker	Company Name	Allocation
SHOP	Shopify	Babylon 5
AMZN	Amazon	Babylon 5
MELI	MercadoLibre	Babylon 5
DIS	Walt Disney	Enterprise
NFLX	Netflix	Serenity
SQ	Square	Serenity
JD	JD.com	Serenity
TDOC	Teladoc	Serenity
NVCR	NovoCure	Serenity
BZUN	Baozun	Serenity
BABA	Alibaba	Serenity
TSLA	Tesla Motors	Serenity
RDFN	Redfin	Serenity
IQ	iQiyi	Serenity
ISRG	Intuitive Surgical	Serenity
TTD	The Trade Desk	Serenity
NPSNY	Naspers	Serenity
ILMN	Illumina	M. Falcon
NVTA	Invitae	M. Falcon
CRSP	CRISPR Therapeutics	M. Falcon
EDIT	Editas Medicine	M. Falcon
STNE	Stoneco	M. Falcon
MDB	Mongo DB	M. Falcon
SWAV	ShockWave Medical	M. Falcon
PROSY	Prosus	M. Falcon
TWLO	Twilio	M. Falcon
JMIA	Jumia Technologies	M. Falcon
ABMD	Abiomed	M. Falcon
SE	Sea Limited	M. Falcon
GH	Guardant Health	M. Falcon
KSHB	KushCo	M. Falcon

So that’s my year one recap of the Freedom Portfolio. The past 12 months hasn’t seen the out-performance that I was hoping or expecting, but as I mentioned earlier, I remain undeterred. Thanks for following me on my journey to beat the market. Here’s hoping for a better year two.