Disney no longer content to play second fiddle to Netflix in streaming

Disney no longer content to play second fiddle to Netflix in streaming

I sometimes get people asking me why I have Disney (DIS) in a portfolio which is otherwise filled with a bunch of “growth” companies. I can understand being confused, as compared to other companies in the Freedom Portfolio like Shopify (SHOP), Tesla (TSLA), and Square (SQ), Disney hasn’t quite had the same growth over the past couple of years. Apparently TV networks, movie production, and theme parks isn’t quite as flashy as electric vehicles and leading an ecommerce revolution against Amazon (AMZN).

One of the main reasons I was a big believer in Disney was because I felt they had untapped potential to really leverage their amazing IP if and when they decided to get into the streaming game. There was a stretch a year or two ago where Netflix (NFLX) and Disney were neck and neck in terms of market capitalization, and as much as I loved Netflix, I thought that was pretty incredible considering Netflix was solely online streaming and didn’t have the other business lines like ESPN and ABC and theme parks and everything else that Disney could lean on.

Disney had their investor day yesterday and made it very clear that they are committed to streaming in a huge way and not at all content to concede first place to Netflix (including some seemingly targeted remarks and quality over quantity and carefully curated content). They announced a mind-boggling amount of new content, including 10 new Marvel series, 10 new Star Wars series, and 15 new Disney Animation / Pixar series. They also spent a fair bit of time emphasizing their overseas ambitions with their Star branding and how that will appeal to markets like India and Latin America.

Previously, it seemed like everybody was taking for granted that Netflix would be the clear #1 streaming service in the world for the foreseeable future. That narrative might be starting to change. Back in 2019, Disney was projecting 60 million to 90 million global subscribers by 2024. Yesterday, they upped that projection to 230 million to 260 million. That is incredible.

The market seems to be appreciating what a focused Disney is capable of today, with the stock up nearly 14% as of this writing. That’s a pretty hefty move for a relatively stable stock like Disney, but I think it is warranted. If Netflix is worth a $220 billion valuation for being a leading international streaming service, then Disney certainly deserves significantly more than that considering its superior intellectual property and other business lines.

Long Disney. This is a stock I would love to ultimately gift to my kids when they are old enough to start investing themselves.

Leave a Reply