Earnings Recap – Week of 5/3/2020: Part 1

Earnings Recap – Week of 5/3/2020: Part 1

This is a crazy week for earnings, with 5 of the top 10 positions in the Freedom Portfolio reporting earnings on the 5th or 6th and another 3 major positions reporting on the 7th. Here are some quick numbers and some thoughts from me about the first batch.

Disney (DIS)

  • Disney+ has reached 54.5M subscribers
  • Shanghai Disneyland will re-open within the week
  • Prior to the closure of domestic parks and resorts, volumes and guest spending were higher compared to the prior-year quarter
  • The summer dividend is being skipped, which will save the company about $1.6 billion
  • View Earnings Report Here
  • My thoughts: I was actually a little disappointed in the Disney+ subscriber numbers considering they had announced over 50 million a month ago. Still, Disney+ has been an unqualified success considering they are hitting their subscriber numbers 4 years early. Every other segment of their business is getting hammered, but Disney has plenty of cash available and should be able to weather this storm assuming theme parks / movie theaters / professional sports starts gearing back up in the not-too-distant future.

MercadoLibre (MELI)

  • Net revenue was up 70.5% year-over-year on an FX neutral basis
  • Total payment volume (TPV) through Mercado Pago was up 82.2% year-over-year on an FX neutral basis
  • Off platform TPV grew 139.5% year-over-year on a FX neutral basis
  • Mobile wallet saw 299.2% year-over-year growth on a FX neutral basis for the full first quarter 2020
  • Their new asset management product, Mercado Fondo, is now available in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico
  • View Earnings Report Here
  • My thoughts: What an amazing earnings report. Look at all of those massive growth numbers. It’s no surprise why the stock jumped around 20% after these earnings. Despite the big run-up, I think MercadoLibre’s growth is just beginning. Latin America as a region should have a long runway of growth ahead of it, and if Venezuela ever gets its act together or foreign currency headwinds turn into tailwinds, that could really help the company soar as well. Many people think of MercadoLibre as the eBay (EBAY) or Amazon (AMZN) of Latin America, but I think that comparison is increasingly inaccurate and selling them short. With their booming digital payments business, they are looking more and more like the Square (SQ) or PayPal (PYPL) of Latin America as well.

Shopify (SHOP)

  • Revenue of $470M beat estimates by $27.08M and was up 46.7% year over year
  • Gross merchandise volume (GMV) of $17.4B beat estimates of $16.83B and was up 46% year over year
  • Non-GAAP EPS of $0.19 beat by $0.36
  • GAAP EPS of -$0.27 beat by $0.50
  • Subscription Solutions revenue grew 34% to $187.6M
  • Merchant Solutions revenue expanded 57% to $282.4M, driven primarily by the growth of GMV.
  • View Earnings Report Here
  • My thoughts: Shopify’s numbers were fairly impressive (especially in how they beat some pretty high expectations), but the numbers don’t seem to tell the whole story here. Shopify seems to be the company for the current Coronavirus / social distancing moment in that they are ideally positioned to help companies adjust to selling things online. This is on top of already being the “rebels” to Amazon’s “empire”. The stock has been on a ridiculous run, and the valuation is getting very pricey, so it’s almost impossible for it to keep growing at this pace for much longer. Still, I considered selling Shopify back in June of last year when it was around $300 a share and can’t imagine how much I would’ve regretted it had I done it then. I don’t like to sell based on valuation concerns alone, so I’m sticking with Shopify to see where this story goes.

3 thoughts on “Earnings Recap – Week of 5/3/2020: Part 1

    1. I have no idea. Is trading still halted on it? So glad I never ended up buying shares. Dodged a bullet there. I imagine we’ll know more when trading is resumed.

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