Expectations for Shopify were extremely high… they still blew them away

Expectations for Shopify were extremely high… they still blew them away

I’ve written a lot about Shopify (SHOP) lately. It’s hard not to when it is one of the largest positions in the Freedom Portfolio and has had such an amazing run (up 30x over the past 5 years and up over 150% this year alone). Shopify was facing some pretty incredible expectations going into their earnings report, and I was bracing myself for disappointment because how could they possibly live up to those expectations? Not only did they not disappoint, but they soundly smashed them:

  • Non-GAAP EPS of $1.05 (beat expectations by $1.03)
  • GAAP EPS of $0.29 (beat expectations by $0.87)
  • Revenue of $714.34M beat expectations by $202.78M and was up 97.3% year over year
  • Gross merchandise volume +119% to $30.1B vs. consensus of $19.90B

Every one of those bullet points shows an incredible amount of growth which just re-affirms that COVID-19 has caused a huge shift of commerce to move online…. and Shopify is helping to lead that shift.

One interesting piece of news that came out the day before the earnings announcement was that Shopify filed for a pretty massive $7.5 billion capital raise. There’s lots of theories running wild that Shopify might be preparing for a large acquisition. I won’t bother weighing in on any of the speculation until there is more definitive information, but even if they don’t end up buying anything, I like that they have the flexibility that this money provides.

As I mentioned before, I’ve already written a lot about Shopify lately, so I’ll just conclude with this: Shopify has grown to be a fairly significant percentage of my overall portfolio. There’s been plenty of times when I have wondered if I was letting it get to be irresponsibly large. After this quarter, though, I have never been more confident in my investment in this company. I love how they’re working on empowering entrepreneurs and how their incentives are aligned with the customers they work with. Management seems absolutely willing to swing for the fences and appears to be executing brilliantly. There are a number of powerful tailwinds at their back and a huge total addressable market in front of them.

Yes, the stock has been on a crazy run and the valuation is incredibly rich, but I’m hanging on to every one of my shares right now and am very excited to see where this company goes over the next 3+ years.

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