Netflix, Tesla, and Amazon crush earnings season

Netflix, Tesla, and Amazon crush earnings season

Over the past two weeks, three companies that make up a combined 23% of the freedom portfolio reported earnings. Here are some quick hits for each:

Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix reported earnings on January 21st and as of the time of this writing is up 5% since then. It has been the laggard of this group.

The Good: One of the most closely watched numbers when it comes to Netflix’s earnings report is their subscriber growth. In this area, they didn’t disappoint, adding 8.76 million paid subscribers, easily beating their forecast of 7.6 million. They also beat on earnings estimates. And for all the hype around the new Disney+ original The Mandalorian, Netflix was able to present some impressive numbers showing how popular their new show The Witcher was as well. Perhaps most importantly? It looks like 2019 might have represented peak cash burn for Netflix, as they are forecasting a smaller loss in 2020. The path to profitability is beginning to come into focus.

The Bad: While overall subscriber growth was great, domestic subscriber growth actually fell short of expectations. We now have a few data points indicating that, whether due to the market being saturated or the increasing presence of competition, US subscriber growth has come to a grinding halt. International subscribers more than made up for it, but the margins on international subscribers are worse (due in small part to lower cost mobile only plans in India) and there’s an open question on how much pricing power Netflix has overseas (as well as how much they have in the US now that there is increased competition).

The Future: There are two big questions facing Netflix going forward. First, can they take their foot off the gas in terms of burning through cash to produce new content while still putting up strong growth in subscribers? Secondly, how will the introduction of lower-cost competition both domestically and abroad (Disney+ is expected to launch in many additional markets in 2020) affect churn and depress Netflix’s pricing power? I think Netflix is in a pretty strong position with a huge slate of original content and a first mover advantage worldwide, but only time will tell.

Tesla (TSLA)

Tesla reported earnings on January 29th and the stock immediately popped more than 10% the next trading day. It has continued to climb and with today’s big rise is now around 30% higher than it was a few days ago.

The Good: The company beat expectations on both revenue and earnings per share while also reporting some strong numbers in terms of deliveries. To top it all off, they company also moved forward the expected launch date for the Model Y. It was a little surprising to see such a big jump after the stock had already more than tripled over the past 8 months, but I guess that’s what happens when a stock is so heavily shorted and the company starts to release positive information.

The Bad: But it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. While the company was profitable, they still have a massive debt load which they will have to deal with at some point. The Chinese Gigafactory is online but now they will need to spend big to get the German Gigafactory assembled. Model 3 sales are doing great, but they appear to be cannibalizing the more expensive Model S and Model X sales, which is pressuring margins.

The Future: Tesla seems to have answered the question of if they can scale up production while also being profitable. The next big question for me is if demand keeps up over the coming quarters and years. Has Tesla unlocked some hidden desire for electric vehicles among the population? Or have they mostly been dealing with pent up demand from their passionate fan base? The other big question is just how close Tesla is to full self driving capability. Also, the Model 3 seems to have been a big hit. Can the Model Y and Cybertruck and Tesla Semi continue that streak? Will Tesla take advantage of their high stock price and have a stock offering to raise money to pay down debt? One thing is for sure, Tesla will certainly continue to be an exciting stock for the next few years.

Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon reported earnings after market close on January 30th. The stock initially popped over 10% after hours before getting dragged down by the overall market concerns over coronavirus. As of the time of this writing, it is up around 8%. That may not sound impressive, but it’s an incredible move for such a large company and represents tends of billions of dollars of added market cap (even more than Tesla added).

The Good: Everything? It was a blowout earnings report by almost every measure. Revenue was up 21% year-over-year to $87.4 billion, beating wall street estimates of $86 billion. Operating income was $3.88B compared to the $2.7B consensus. Amazon also reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $6.47, which crushed the consensus estimate of $3.98. Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue was up 34% and “other” revenue (which is largely made up of their ad business) was up 41%.

Lastly, they reported that they now had over 150 million prime users, which is a nice base of recurring subscription revenue to rely on.

The Bad: As alluded to before, there wasn’t much to criticize in the earnings report. Amazon continues to spend a lot of money to invest in their cloud infrastructure, one day shipping, and international expansion, but given their history these seem like good bets to pay off over the long term.

The Future: It’s going to be interesting to continue to watch the competition in the cloud computing space. Can AWS maintain its lead over Azure and others? Will Amazon’s advertising business continue its incredible growth, or will concerns over harming the customer experience and hurting relationships with clients cause them to take their foot off the gas? The biggest thing I will be keeping my eye on, though, is how their efforts to expand into India are going. It’s a potentially massive opportunity that Amazon has spent a lot of money on but they appear to be getting some push back. If they can become a major player in India, then the next decade could be incredibly positive for Amazon.

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