Redfin: A mixed quarter

Redfin: A mixed quarter

Redfin (RDFN) announced second quarter earnings last week, and those earnings really drove home just how crazy the past few months have been in the real estate market. As CEO Glenn Kelman said: “Within the span of a single quarter, year-over-year changes in demand went from -41% to +40%”.

As result, I’m wary of reading too much into Redfin’s results this past quarter seeing as the company basically went from preparing for a cataclysmic collapse of the real estate market (check out Kelman’s excellent blog posts about what it was like to run Redfin through the pandemic) to scrambling to handle a spike in demand when it unexpectedly rebounded. Here are some of the key numbers anyway:

  • Revenue increased 8% year-over-year
  • Gross profit decreased 5% year-over-year
  • Reached market share of 0.93% of U.S. existing home sales by value

That last bullet point is the most concerning to me. Redfin’s market share has always been a little erratic, but the general trend was clearly up. That hasn’t quite been the case lately. Take a look:

  • Q3 2019: 0.96%
  • Q4 2019: 0.94%
  • Q1 2020: 0.93%
  • Q2 2020: 0.93%

Not only is that not generally trending up, but if anything, it is trending down. I had assumed that Redfin’s strength with things like virtual tours would’ve helped it to gain more market share during this socially distant period, but that appears to not be the case. I’m trying not to make a big deal out of a single metric like this, and I wouldn’t go so far as to say that I’m worried, but I am a little more cautious after seeing those market share gains stall out.

On the positive side, management sounded very optimistic on the call, and I do trust Redfin management a lot. They don’t sound overly concerned about the market share numbers and they also seem pretty optimistic about the direction of the housing market. I still believe Redfin has inherent advantages over its competitors and that those advantages are even greater during times of social distancing, so I remain bullish on Redfin over the next 3+ years despite what is admittedly a mixed report this time around.

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