Selling Spotify; Snowflake too expensive

Selling Spotify; Snowflake too expensive

The much-anticipated Snowflake (SNOW) IPO (initial public offering) was this past week, and despite having been burned a bit recently by jumping into an IPO too soon (hello, Jumia!), I was pretty set on at least dipping my toe in for Snowflake since I was so excited for it.

Then, over the course of around 24 hours, the price per share basically tripled.

Needless to say, I’m definitely holding off on buying any shares for now. I’m still going to keep Snowflake on my radar, particularly a few months from now when the lock-up period expires. If we get a pretty significant pullback (and I think it would have to be close to a 50% pullback at this point), then I might take the plunge.

In anticipation for possibly buying some shares of Snowflake, I had sold my shares of Spotify (SPOT). I had bought because I was intrigued by the moves they were making in the podcast space by signing such huge draws like The Ringer and Joe Rogan. I thought having those programs could be a key differentiator that would let them stand apart from Amazon Prime Music or Apple Music or other competitors. I even had dreams of them possibly becoming the Netflix of podcasts.

None of that seems to have happened yet. In fact, it doesn’t seem like Spotify has much of a plan at all when it comes to podcasts yet. I still have some minor concerns that Spotify has the necessary visionary leadership to transform itself into something greater. It doesn’t help that right after they acquired Joe Rogan’s material (a figure they had to have known was mildly controversial) it was discovered that some of his past episodes were no longer available. If they’re planning on censoring a figure like Rogan, that would seem to immediately lessen his appeal.

Since I wasn’t able to get in on Snowflake at a reasonable price, I used some of the proceeds from the sale of Spotify to add to my Nano-X (NNOX) position after it took a tumble in the wake of a short report by Citron Research (check it out here). I always love to hear intelligent bear cases for the companies I hold, and I tried my best not to completely dismiss Citron’s concerns without giving them their due, but it was a little hard given their history with companies in my portfolio. The most egregious is probably back in October of 2017 when Citron had released a short report on Shopify (SHOP) with a price target of $60 (check it out here). Not only did Shopify never even come close to hitting $60, but it is now at ~$900 (or 15X larger than Citron’s price target). So while I always try my best to take any criticism seriously, I am not at all worried about the short report by Citron and was instead happy to get some more shares of Nano-X at a lower price. The rest I will keep in reserve (for now) to deploy a little later.

One thought on “Selling Spotify; Snowflake too expensive

Leave a Reply