End of an Era at Amazon

End of an Era at Amazon

I spent way too long trying to come up with some clever way of discussing this topic (Jeff Bezos has less in common with Wonder Woman than you might think), which is why this is so late. Honestly, I think part of it is also coming to grips with the news that Jeff Bezos is stepping down as CEO of Amazon (AMZN) (although he is sticking around still as Executive Chairman). It shouldn’t have been surprising, but it still shocked me to hear. Amazon and Bezos have always been nearly inseparable in my mind.

A little over two years ago, I wrote about why Amazon was my largest holding. It’s no coincidence that the first “Pro” was about the leadership of Jeff Bezos and the first “Con” was the risk of him stepping down. Here is what I wrote then:

Just as Bezos’ leadership is a big benefit for Amazon, it’s only fair to also count the possibility of him someday leaving as a potential risk as well. Bezos is only 54 years old, which is relatively young (especially compared to 88 year old Warren Buffett), and he has shown no indications that he is thinking of stepping down anytime soon. However, Bill Gates stepped down as CEO of Microsoft at the age of 45, so being young is no guarantee against leaving a business. Bezos also notably has other interests, such as space flight company Blue Origin, the Washington Post, and now also his Day One Fund. I don’t see Bezos leaving Amazon anytime soon, but at the same time, it wouldn’t completely shock me to see him step down to a smaller role in the next 5 years. Will Amazon continue to be as relentlessly innovative when that happens? Hard to imagine it will.

Why Amazon is my Largest Holding

Looks like my quasi-prediction of him stepping down to a smaller role came true.

Its worth noting that Bezos stepping down actually overshadowed some pretty incredible results from Amazon for the quarter:

  • Earnings per Share (EPS) was $14.09, blowing away analyst estimates of a $7.26 and representing a 118% year-over-year increase.
  • Revenue was $125.6 billion, which was an increase of 44% year-over-year. For a company the size of Amazon to be able to increase revenue 44% year-over-year is simply amazing.

What a note to go out on as CEO.

I understand Bezos will be sticking around and will still be involved with Amazon and that Andy Jassy is really well thought of, but it’s hard for me not to see this as a hit to Amazon’s prospects going forward. Bezos would be my pick for the most successfully innovative entrepreneur of my lifetime (although Elon Musk is giving him a run for his money). That’s not something easily replaceable, even if we’ve seen some great results from CEOs like Tim Cook (replacing an innovative force that was the face of a company) and Satya Nadella (former head of cloud taking over for a large tech company).

Speaking of Musk, he has a lot in common with Bezos, including a bunch of side projects (one of which is space exploration). I wonder if this compels Musk to step down in the near future?

But I digress. On to some tweaks to the Freedom Portfolio:

Sells

Sold part of Amazon (AMZN): A part of this is absolutely in deference to Jeff Bezos. I don’t care what anybody else says, him stepping down as CEO makes it seem like it is no longer Day 1 at Amazon. But another part of it is an acknowledgement of just how big Amazon has gotten and how the law of large numbers would imply that continuing to grow at the pace it has been will be difficult going forward. The company has performed incredibly well in the past and the stock has almost doubled, and yet it is actually in the lower quartile of performers in the Freedom Portfolio during that time period. Since I created the Freedom Portfolio, it has gone from my undisputed top holding to a Serenity-level holding.

I still think there’s a lot of growth ahead of the company in cloud, advertising, and internationally, but my expectations are for growth to be slowing somewhat in the coming years. That’s why I am cutting my position roughly in half.

Thanks for the returns, Amazon. You’ve been an amazing contributor to the Freedom Portfolio over the years.

Sold part of Roku (ROKU): Nothing fancy here. I wanted to free up some capital for some other purchases (including another CTV play) and Roku stood out as something that had run up a ton lately and had overshot my levels of conviction a bit. I trimmed the position in order to add to some of the below.

Buys

Started position in Magnite (MGNI): The CTV play mentioned above. I spend a lot of time patting myself on the back for my successes. Here, I want to talk about a major mistake. You may not realize it, but actually owned Magnite previously back when the company was known as The Rubicon Project. The idea was that they were setting out to become the sell-side counterpart to the Trade Desk’s (TTD) demand-side platform in the CTV space. About 7 months ago, I got spooked when some executives left and made me worried about the company’s commitment to the CTV space and sold at $7.27 a share.

I just started a new position at $51.41 a share.

Obviously it hurts to have missed out on those big gains, but I didn’t want that to prevent me from rectifying my mistake. I’m dipping my toe back in.

Started position in DermTech (DMTK): Started a small, speculative position in a company that aims to be able to test for melanoma by using a painless sticker instead of having to cut into a person’s skin using a scalpel. If they can do what they claim to be able to do, this feels like it could be a big winner.

Added to Etsy (ETSY) and Fiverr (FVRR): Both of these companies are riding the same trends of entrepreneurship and side hustles and ecommerce and remote work. The more I read about them, the more excited I get about their future. It feels fitting to redeploy some of the capital I raised from Amazon to these two companies.

3 thoughts on “End of an Era at Amazon

  1. I looked up DermTech out of curiosity. Your post/email right at 4pm must had the same effect as an Elon Musk tweet 🙂

    1. Yeah, what crazy timing! I had bought over a week ago and was just waiting to throw in the mention in the next post I was going to write, which was going to be for Amazon’s earnings. This is the second time I’ve had some weird lucky timing. Back on February 4th on twitter I talked about Fiverr and it ended up spiking that day too. I call it the Paul Essen bump.

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