The Freedom Portfolio – January 2021

The Freedom Portfolio – January 2021

Between the kick-off of Fantasy Investing 2021, my recklessly bold predictions for 2021, and just things like being commissioner of fantasy football leagues which are winding down and enjoying the holidays with my family, the end of December is already a pretty busy time for me even without having to write up a new quarterly recap. Also, I feel like it’s still fair to use the excuse of a newborn baby sucking away time.

Anyway, I apologize in advance that this one is a little short. You can probably expect a little bit more of an abridged quarterly recap in the fourth quarter going forward.

Let’s start out with updated performance:

And here’s a look how each individual position performed over the past quarter and since the inception of the Freedom Portfolio.

TickerQuarterly ChangeChange Since Inception
NNOX90%6%
ROKU66%164%
TSLA57%1053%
NVCR54%227%
MELI50%387%
CRWD48%114%
DIS47%54%
TTD44%273%
SWAV38%95%
ETSY35%67%
RDFN30%270%
FVRR30%-2%
SQ29%116%
AAXN28%63%
SE24%512%
JD12%238%
SHOP7%580%
NFLX3%44%
AMZN1%61%
TDOC-9%130%
FSLY-11%48%
ZM-30%128%

I’ve run out of ways to describe how 2020 was in terms of investing performance for the Freedom Portfolio. It was simply amazing and I don’t expect to ever be able to replicate those results again. So instead of focusing on the positives, I wanted to touch on a few (investing) negatives from 2020.

Magnite (MGNI): I was pretty excited about Magnite (formed by a merger of Teleria and the Rubicon Project) at the beginning of the year, so much so that I made it one of my picks for my fantasy investing 2020 portfolio. At the same time, my conviction in the company was low, so it was a pretty small position for me. Some poor performance earlier in the year along with some management changes shook my conviction and I ultimately sold in June. About 6 months later, the stock now is sitting around 4x where I sold it. It’s possible I was too quick to sell Magnite, and it might be time to take another look at the company.

Jumia (JMIA): Jumia is a very similar story. I had high hopes for the “Amazon of Africa” since many of my other ecommerce companies were thriving during COVID related lockdowns. I sold in September after some mediocre results made me question if the company would be able to seize the opportunity. Since then, the stock has gone up 5x. I’m still not convinced I necessarily made the wrong call, though. Time will tell. I’ll be keeping my eye on it, but have no plans to buy shares again any time soon.

Notable Performers

Just going to briefly touch on the best and worst performer this past quarter.

Best Performer

Nano-X (NNOX) – 90% gain: Interestingly, Nano-X was on my “worst performers” list last quarter. There’s honestly not much to say here. A series of short reports pummeled the stock in Q3 and the stock bounced back from that in Q4 (thanks in part to a live demonstration that was streamed in December). This is still a highly speculative company where so much rests on FDA approval to disprove the majority of the short thesis. I’m still optimistic, but the plan is to hold off making any buys or sells until there is more clarification from the FDA.

Worst Performer

Zoom Video (ZM) – 30% loss: This is almost the reverse story to Nano-X. Zoom peaked a few months ago (shortly after the start of Q4) after some absolutely incredible earnings reports. Since then, it has dropped a fair bit, presumably on positive vaccine news and because people are worried about Zoom’s place in a post-COVID world. I am not worried at all, and Zoom is on my list of companies I am interested in adding to if/when I have cash available.

Changes in the Portfolio

The Freedom Portfolio – October 2020

Here is where the Freedom Portfolio stands going into 2021. Need a reminder of what these terms mean? Check out: Defining my Terms. A few notes:

  • Mercado Libre moved up to a Babylon 5 level position on the back of an incredible 50% gain over the past quarter
  • Crowdstrike moved up to a Serenity level position on the back of some additional buys and a nice 48% gain during the quarter
  • Fastly fell to a Millennium Falcon level position after falling 11% during a quarter where the rest of the portfolio increased almost 30%.
TickerCompany NameAllocation
SHOPShopifyBabylon 5
TSLATeslaBabylon 5
MELIMercadoLibreBabylon 5
SESea LimitedEnterprise
AMZNAmazonEnterprise
RDFNRedfinSerenity
TTDThe Trade DeskSerenity
TDOCTeladocSerenity
SQSquareSerenity
NVCRNovoCureSerenity
ROKURokuSerenity
DISWalt DisneySerenity
JDJD.comSerenity
ETSYEtsySerenity
NFLXNetflixSerenity
CRWDCrowdStrikeSerenity
FSLYFastlyMillennium Falcon
FVRRFiverrMillennium Falcon
ZMZoom VideoMillennium Falcon
NNOXNano-XMillennium Falcon
SWAVShockwave MedicalMillennium Falcon
AAXNAxon EnterprisesMillennium Falcon

That’s the 2020Q4 recap of the Freedom Portfolio. Thanks for following, and here’s to a prosperous 2021 for all!

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