Jan 2021 Portfolio Tweaks

Jan 2021 Portfolio Tweaks

Looks like the stock market in 2021 is picking up where the 2020 stock market left off. Maybe one day I’ll write about the day I almost bought some $7 Gamestop (GME) calls in August of 2020 and do the math to figure out exactly how much of a gain I lost out on. Maybe it will top my previous biggest investing mistake that I made with Netflix (NFLX) which at last check was at $2.3+ million.

I’ve made a few tweaks to the Freedom Portfolio over the past few weeks and wanted to briefly outline my thought process below:

Sells

Tesla (TSLA) – Tesla has been so difficult for me to deal with. I strongly believe in letting my winners run and doing so has paid off handsomely with companies like Shopify (SHOP) and not doing so has been incredibly painful (see: Netflix example above). At the same time, I find the current valuation to be completely indefensible and am having an incredibly difficult time seeing how there can still be a significant amount of upside left at these levels. And yet, every time I have trimmed my position, the stock continues to go up. The simple fact of the matter is that I am uncomfortable letting Tesla grow to be too big of a position in my portfolio, which is why I have continued to trim. It still remains a Babylon 5 level position (RIP, Mira Furlan), but I intend to keep trimming for now to avoid letting it get to be too large.

Fastly (FSLY) – I haven’t felt like I’ve had the time to do any deep dives into any of my holdings lately and, as a result, I haven’t mentioned the P.A.U.L. System recently. However, I absolutely have still been using my system to mentally score my positions. When it came to Fastly, I had been getting more and more concerned the “Understanding” score. Put simply, I found that I couldn’t articulate why Fastly was better or even different from Cloudflare (NET), one of its main competitors. Without that level of understanding, it’s hard to have high conviction, and so I decided it was time to redeploy that capital into higher conviction picks.

Buys

Zoom (ZM) – Over the past 3 months, Zoom has fallen around 30% from its all time highs. Presumably the reason is because people think that once everybody is vaccinated and COVID is “over”, that Zoom won’t be nearly as ubiquitous. I think that could be short-sighted and an over-simplification. I believe that the lockdowns have permanently altered some business behavior and that a certain level of video conferencing that didn’t exist before is here to stay, and I believe Zoom is the primary beneficiary of that. For that reason, I wanted to take advantage of the dip in price.

Etsy (ETSY) and Fiverr (FVRR) – I initiated these positions last year based on the idea that a growing “side-hustle” movement and maturing ecommerce space would greatly benefit these companies. The more research that I do, the higher my conviction has grown on these two companies and I wanted to increase my position size. Both companies are now solidly Serenity level positions.

Nano-X (NNOX) Despite being excited about the potential with Nano-X, I had decided to not add to my position because a series of short reports had me wondering if there was a possibility that the company was a fraud. The jury is still out, and likely will continue to be out until FDA approval either comes or doesn’t. A decision is expected in the first half of 2021. Until then, though, I’m becoming less and less concerned over the idea that the company is a complete fraud. As a result, I added slightly to my position, although it remains a Millennium Falcon level position.

Skillz (SKLZ) and fuboTV (FUBO) – Two new positions that I have added to try to get additional exposure to live sports streaming and online gambling. Both are tiny positions and if my conviction grows (or the position does), then I might consider writing more about what excites me about the companies. For now, though, I just wanted to get a little skin in the game.

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